Do correspondente do Blog do Pastor Manoel Barbosa em Whashington, João Mascarenhas Viana
Whatever else the week
between Christmas and New Year’s is, it’s a godsend for columnists who
are short on serious ideas, because we get to do things like write
predictions columns. Thank you, Pope Gregory. But I promise you a few
surprises, and a couple made of concrete so that you can hold me to them
and wave them in my face a few months hence.
1. Situation: Budget Deadline. Prediction: Deal reached after 9 p.m. on January 14.
The year will start bleakly—really going out on a limb there, eh?—as January 15 arrives. Remember, the budget deal reached in December did not appropriate any specific dollars toward any specific program. It just raised the ceiling on the amounts that may be appropriated.
So
between now and January 15, congressional appropriators have to set
those levels. One has to assume that the GOP establishment’s “no more
stupid shutdowns” rule will still have force. But there will be enough
Tea Party members willing to create enough mischief to make things
suspenseful again. I somehow suspect that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), notably sidelined during the December negotiations, won’t be quite so cooperative this time around.
I’d
still say there won’t be a shutdown. House Speaker John Boehner and
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have that much control over their
caucuses. But it’s just the rhythm of these things that the radicals
have to flex a little muscle this time. I predict a really, really
last-minute deal, in which the radicals won’t get anything but will have
reminded the establishment that they’re not lying down.
2. Situation: Debt Limit. Prediction: Obama Will Go Big, Tempt Impeachment Charges.
The
Republicans will announce some set of ridiculous debt-limit increase
demands. Obama will say, “I’m not negotiating.” He has said that every
since the first debt fiasco back in 2009, but behind the scenes, the
administration has talked.
This time I think it’ll be
different. I sense Obama has just reached the end of his rope on this
one. That face of his, which so rarely betrays an emotion, contorts
whenever the issue arises, into the shape of someone who’s just sucked a
lemon. In addition, Congress’s role in the debt limit is at heart a
question of constitutional law, and if this con-law president is going
to take a stand over anything, it’s probably that. I don’t know exactly
what Obama is going to do, but it could be dramatic—he even had his
lawyers studying that platinum-coin nonsense last year. This is the
issue on which he’ll invite an impeachment charge. I’d imagine he’d like
to be the president who settled this one once and for all—assuming it’s
settled in his direction, which I can’t predict, except to say I think
efforts to impeach him over the issue would go nowhere and only help
Obama.
READ MORE Bill Clinton to Swear in de Blasio3. Situation: March 31 Obamacare Sign-Up Deadline. Prediction: Success!
Did
you notice that nearly 1 million people signed up for health-care
coverage in December? That was to meet the deadline to have coverage by
January 1. The final deadline for signing up for the federal or state
exchanges is March 31. How many people are going to sign their freedom
away between now and the first pitch of the baseball season?
READ MORE The Year in Fringe
I
predict that at this point, another 3 million is a conservative
estimate. I’ll go ahead and give you a number—by March 31, I say we’ll
have 5.8 million sign-ups. That’s not 7 million, but it’s not bad.
There’s nothing magic about 7 million, mind you—it’s not like the
Hellmouth starts devouring Sunnydale on April 1 if 7 million isn’t hit.
It’s just a target that was intended to suggest the likelihood of a
decent balance of sick and healthy. I doubt 5.8 million would be all
that much different.
My broader prediction, echoing what I’ve written previously,
is that Obamacare is not going to be anywhere near the problem for
Democrats next fall that most pundits and most polls now are foreseeing.
READ MORE Republicans’ Unemployment Shame4. Situation: Iran. Prediction: A Deal, but Problems.
As you’ll recall, in
November the United States and Iran agreed to an interim, six-month deal
while they worked out the longer-term details over these next few
months. There was a lot of speculation at the time about whether the
long-term agreement could really be consummated.
READ MORE The Sleaziest Pols of the Year
I
think it will, and it will be historic, but many years will pass before
we’ll be able to see whether the agreement was on balance a good thing.
In the short run, I think the effects won’t be so great. Iran will be
strengthened in the region by virtue of the mere fact that it was able
to bring the Great Satan to the table. And if Iran is strengthened, that
means Bashar al-Assad will be strengthened, and Hezbollah will be
strengthened. A deal will keep Iran’s nuclear ambitions monitored, but
all its other ambitions will probably be helped.
5. Situation: Republican Primaries. Prediction: About a .333 Batting Average for the Tea Party.READ MORE The NCAA’s Big Gay Choice
Well,
.333 is great in the big leagues, but I don’t think it’s so hot in
politics. But depending on which incumbent Republicans the Tea Party
insurgents manage to bring down, and of course depending on whether any
of the upstart primary winners make it to the Senate, .333 can look
either pretty good or really awful.
Matt
Bevin is not going to beat McConnell in Kentucky. It is possible,
though, that Pat Roberts could lose in Kansas, and it’s even sort of
possible that Lindsey Graham could lose in South Carolina. Both of those
states would elect the Republican provided his/her last name wasn’t
Goebbels, which in both cases it’s not.
READ MORE The Ted Cruz Wannabes6. Situation: November By-Elections. Prediction: Status Quo Mostly, Except Kentucky.
I
think the Democrats will hold the Senate and the Republicans will hold
the House. I’d expect the margins to narrow a bit in both houses, but
the fundamental political dynamic of Congress won’t change.
READ MORE Seven Things Congress Actually Did
I do, however, think that Alison Lundergan Grimes will beat McConnell in Kentucky. People aren’t paying attention. McConnell’s approval rating in the state in a recent poll is the same as President Obama’s.
Grimes is going to raise the needed money, and all she really has to do
is keep reminding people that they’re tired of Mitch, which she’s been
doing pretty well.
7. Situation: The Hillary Situation. Prediction: She’ll Announce After the Election.READ MORE America Joins the Developed World
Sometime
around next Thanksgiving, Clinton will give a speech somewhere
symbolically appropriate to suggest—not say, but suggest—that she will
seek the Democratic nomination. Seneca Falls? No, too “shrill” and
womanly. New York City? Too elitist. Washington? The same. I predict
somewhere in the heart of Pennsylvania, some county where she mopped up
Obama in 2008, to remind people of that little time when she was a
working-class hero.
Chris
Christie won’t do the same. Clinton has an interest in, and ability to,
clear the field in a way that he can’t. So he’ll wait a while longer.
But Clinton will be all the talk this time next year, which has never
been a good thing for presidential candidates to be, but there’s always a
first time.
Related from The Daily Beast
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